Rich Keister’s Week 7 Thursday Night Bet: Broncos Ride High, Kamara Tiptoes Through Denver’s Defense

Written By: Rich Keister 

It’s time to bet our keisters and get rich. That’s what it’s all about. This matchup is a nightmare, but I’ve found the edge and I can’t resist. The Broncos are limping in after a tough loss to the Chargers, and the Saints? They got flattened by the Bucs. We’ve got rookie QBs Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler trying not to fumble their way through this matchup, but let's cut to the chase—this game’s about who screws up less. But here’s the kicker: Alvin Kamara might just be the game-flipper. If anyone’s going to shake things up, it’s him. Buckle up—because this one’s going to be messy.

Team Overviews

Broncos (3-3):
The Broncos might be 3-3, but let's not kid ourselves—they’ve been riding on the back of their defense. Bo Nix, bless his heart, has been inconsistent. He’s thrown 5 TDs and 5 INTs, which is the definition of “meh.” Their defense, though? Solid. 16 points allowed per game. But... they’re missing Pat Surtain II due to a concussion. Not ideal.

Saints (2-4):
And then there's the Saints. Coming off a lovely 51-27 spanking at the hands of the Bucs, the Saints are basically saying, “Kamara, please save us.” Spencer Rattler, their shiny new QB, had his first NFL start last week, and well, let's just say he's got some learning to do. Their defense? Swiss cheese. They’re giving up 24.5 points per game, so this is the game where Bo Nix might actually look like a stud.

Key Matchups

Bo Nix vs. Saints’ Secondary:
Here’s the deal: the Saints’ defense has been serving up big plays like hotcakes. Nix needs to capitalize on that, but I’m betting we’ll see the Saints throwing blitzes at him like it’s a Black Friday sale. The goal? Force Nix to throw the game away. Can he keep it together under pressure? I’ve got my doubts, but that’s what makes this fun!

Kamara vs. Broncos' Defense:
The man, the myth, the legend—Alvin Kamara. The guy’s been a beast this season, racking up 428 rushing yards. With Denver’s defense missing Surtain, Kamara’s going to find those cracks. Whether he can turn those cracks into game-breaking plays will be the story of the night. If Kamara goes off, Denver’s in trouble.

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Betting Insights

Sharp Money & Line Movements:
Ah, the sweet science of line shifts. The game opened with the Broncos as 1-point favorites, but now it’s shifted to Saints -1. Clearly, sharp money is coming in on both sides, and you know what that means: this game is gonna be tight. The over/under sits at 37.5, which feels just right for two rookie quarterbacks struggling to put points on the board.

Betting Trends:

• Broncos: They’re 3-2 against the spread this season and seem to love covering on the road.
• Saints: Their defense has been as effective as a paper plate at a BBQ—flimsy. They’re not covering spreads, and big scores are being allowed left and right.
• Sharp Action: Everyone’s leaning toward the under, and honestly, it makes sense. We’ve got two rookie QBs, and both teams are going to rely heavily on their defenses.

Final Score Prediction

Alright, here’s how I see this one playing out. It’s going to be a gritty, low-scoring affair. Kamara is going to do his thing, but Bo Nix will hold it together just enough to keep Denver in the game. In the end, Denver’s defense is what wins this for them, and I’m taking the Broncos 20, Saints 17 with Denver covering the +1.5 spread. It’s not going to be pretty, but it’s going to be effective.

Keister’s BONUS 3-Leg Parlay

And because I’m feeling generous, here’s your bonus 3-leg parlay:

1. Broncos +1.5 ATS: Denver’s defense keeps this game close, and Bo Nix does just enough to cover.
2. Under 37.5 Points: Two rookie quarterbacks and a defensive battle? Yeah, this one’s staying under.
3. Alvin Kamara Anytime TD: The man’s going to find the end zone at least once. The Saints' offense needs him to make things happen.

About Rich Keister

I’m Rich Keister, and I Dont Half Ass Anything. Betting isn’t just a hobby—it’s a way of life. I’ve built my success on discipline, precision, and finding the edge that others are too slow to see. I don’t wait for the perfect moment; I create it. When I pick a line, I hammer it—because hesitation doesn’t win. Following my picks isn’t just about cashing in on smart bets; it’s about living with confidence, making bold moves, and never backing down. If you want to win, you can’t half-ass it—so let’s get to work.

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