Rich Keister’s Thursday Night Bet: Baker’s Gonna Cook—Falcons Defense Won’t Hold Up

Written by: Rich Keister

Ah, Thursday night—the perfect time for a few beers, some wings, and a hot take or two. Well, here’s one for ya: Baker Mayfield’s not just back, he’s cooking, and this Thursday, the Falcons are on the menu. The Bucs are coming in hot at 3-1, and while Atlanta may be holding onto a respectable 2-2 record, it’s Baker and the boys who are about to light it up.

Baker’s Back in the Kitchen

Let’s start with the man of the hour, Baker Mayfield. Say what you want about his past, but in Tampa, the guy’s found his rhythm. With an impressive 70.5% completion rate, Mayfield has racked up 984 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions. The Buccaneers' passing game ranks 9th in the NFL, and when you add in the fact that Atlanta’s defense is 19th overall, it’s a recipe for disaster—for the Falcons, that is.

Rich Keister doesn’t just see the stats; he sees Baker cooking up another W for Tampa. And if you’re wondering if the Bucs can handle the Falcons defense, remember that this is the same defense that’s allowed over 1,377 total yards this season. Falcons' secondary? Yeah, not exactly the steel curtain.

The Betting Lines & Keister’s Pick

Now, let’s get down to the numbers because Rich isn’t throwing out his Thursday night bet just for fun. The Bucs are coming in as slight underdogs at +1.5, but that’s not scaring Rich off. In fact, the Falcons being favored by 1.5 points makes this all the more exciting.

For Keister, it’s not about betting on favorites; it’s about betting on who’s in form, and right now, Baker’s in form. The over/under is set at 43.5, and Rich is leaning towards the over. Why? Well, Tampa’s passing game is ready to exploit the Falcons’ weak points, and the Falcons’ own offense isn’t too shabby either. We might just see a high-scoring affair—perfect for anyone trying to cash in on the over.

Atlanta’s Weak Points

Sure, the Falcons have some players worth watching—Bijan Robinson has been a bright spot with 224 rushing yards, but against the Buccaneers' 18th-ranked defense, it’s going to be tough to break through. And don’t even get me started on their passing game. Kirk Cousins has thrown 4 interceptions so far, and with the Bucs' ability to get sacks (Tampa has 8 sacks to Atlanta's 4), Cousins might spend more time on the ground than throwing touchdowns.

Atlanta’s defense also struggles on third down, giving up a 47% success rate to opposing teams. Tampa, meanwhile, is converting on 42% of third downs—all signs point to Baker and the Bucs extending drives and keeping the Falcons on their heels.

Keister’s Final Take

This game is set to be a show, and Rich Keister’s $50 bet is squarely on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin racking up receiving yards and Tampa’s defense ready to put pressure on Cousins, Rich is confident Tampa is going to steal the spotlight. Falcons fans, buckle up—this one’s going to sting.

Don’t Half Ass Gameday 

And hey, after you watch the Bucs roast the Falcons, make sure your wings are served the right way—on the AssPlate. You know the drill: no half measures, just full flavor. Check out the AssPlate collection here. If you’re not eating off an AssPlate as a fan, you’re team is falling behind.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for entertainment and informational purposes only. DHAA and the author do not provide any guarantees regarding the outcome of sporting events, and readers are encouraged to make their own informed decisions. Betting involves financial risk, and it is the responsibility of the individual to understand and assume those risks. Please bet responsibly.