Revenge in the Bay? 49ers Out for Blood as Mahomes Leads Chiefs in Super Bowl Grudge Match

Author: Chuck Deadbolt Davis

Game: Chiefs @ 49ers (Week 7)

Date/Time: Sunday, October 20th @ 4:25pm

The last time these two teams met, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs claimed victory in a 25-22 overtime thriller in Super Bowl LVIII. This an absolute grudge match fueled by revenge. The Chiefs stealing that Super Bowl title in OT, left the 49ers devastated and bitter on the biggest stage in the world. 

This time, the 49ers face the Chiefs at Levi’s Stadium and they will be seeking redemption in front of their home crowd. For Brock Purdy and the 49ers, this matchup isn’t just about getting another win—it’s personal. It’s about wiping away the pain of that Super Bowl defeat and proving that they have what it takes to knock off the reigning champions.

Mahomes and the Chiefs come in as the reigning kings of the NFL, but like I said, the 49ers are fueled by revenge. The tension is high, and the stakes are even higher as these two teams face off in what promises to be a battle for pride and redemption.

Key Matchups & Storylines to Follow

1. 49ers Defensive Line vs. Chiefs Offensive Line

This one’s a heavyweight showdown. Nick Bosa and the 49ers' pass rush have been terrorizing quarterbacks all season, and they’re hungry to get to Mahomes. The Chiefs' offensive line has held its own, but they haven’t faced a unit like this yet. If San Francisco can consistently get in Mahomes' face, it’ll disrupt Kansas City’s rhythm. But if Mahomes starts slipping past defenders and extending plays, the Chiefs will be tough to stop.

2. Travis Kelce vs. 49ers Defense

Travis Kelce is always the focal point of Mahomes’ passing game. If he gets rolling, Kansas City is in business. But Fred Warner and the 49ers know that neutralizing Kelce is the key to slowing down the Chiefs’ offense. Warner’s elite coverage skills will be tested, and if he can keep Kelce in check, Kansas City will be forced into tough third-down situations.

3. Elijah Mitchell vs. Chiefs Run Defense

With Christian McCaffrey sidelined, the 49ers will lean on Elijah Mitchell. While Mitchell is no stranger to making big plays, he’ll face a Chiefs run defense that ranks top-5 in the league. The 49ers need to control the clock and keep Mahomes on the sidelines, but Kansas City's front seven has been rock solid. If the Chiefs bottle up Mitchell, the pressure shifts to Purdy to deliver through the air.

4. Mahomes' Playmaking vs. 49ers’ Pressure

Even under pressure, Mahomes has an uncanny ability to make magic happen. He leads the league in passer rating under pressure, and his ability to escape collapsing pockets keeps defenses on edge. The 49ers’ defense excels at getting after quarterbacks, but containing Mahomes for four quarters is easier said than done. This is the key battle of the game—if Mahomes can extend plays and create downfield opportunities, the Chiefs are in business.

5. Andy Reid off the Bye

There’s no way around it—Andy Reid off a bye week is a problem. Reid’s record after a bye is legendary, and with the extra preparation time, you can bet he’ll have some tricks up his sleeve. The 49ers' defense has to be ready for the unexpected, but Reid’s ability to scheme up new wrinkles might just give Kansas City the edge they need.

Betting Insights, Deadbolt Analysis, and Sharp Money Trends:

When you’re talking about a matchup like this—Chiefs vs. 49ers—you’ve got to dive into the trends that matter. Here’s what’s tipping this game toward Kansas City for me:

Chiefs +1.5 Spread

Mahomes loves playing the underdog, and whenever he’s been given points, he’s delivered. In fact, Mahomes has covered the spread in 7 of his last 8 games as an underdog. And let’s not forget the Reid factor. Reid is a master strategist, especially off a bye week, where his teams are virtually unbeatable. With Reid’s prep and Mahomes’ magic, Kansas City covering the +1.5 spread feels like a lock.

Under 47 Points

Both teams have top-tier defenses that have kept opponents in check all season. The 49ers allow just 13.4 points per game, while the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 17 points in their last three outings. With two defenses capable of controlling the clock and limiting big plays, this game is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair. That’s why I’m calling for the under here.

Mahomes vs. 49ers Pressure

There’s no doubt that the 49ers’ pressure will come hard and fast. But Mahomes is the ultimate escape artist—he leads the league in passer rating under pressure for a reason. If the 49ers can’t sack him early and often, he’ll find ways to pick apart the defense. This is where the game will likely be won or lost: in Mahomes’ ability to elude the pass rush.

Reid’s Bye Week Advantage

You can’t overlook Reid after a bye. His extra time to prepare is a game-changer, and he consistently finds ways to outscheme opponents in these situations. Combine that with Mahomes’ performance in tough spots, and it’s hard not to back Kansas City to not just cover but potentially steal a win.

AssPlate: Ready for Whatever Game Day Throws at You

Revenge is brewing in the Bay, and the 49ers aren’t the only ones prepared to handle the pressure. Enter the AssPlate—built to stand up to your game-day spread, whether it’s stacked wings or loaded nachos. With the Signature Sauce Plug, you can keep everything in place, so your focus stays on the action, not the cleanup.

Because let’s be real: flimsy paper plates won’t survive this showdown. Don’t half-ass your food, your tailgate, or your Sunday. Grip that AssPlate and handle your Gamedays like a PRO.

Chuck's Deadbolt Prediction

As much as the 49ers are hungry for revenge, everything points to the Chiefs covering the +1.5 spread. Mahomes performs best when the pressure is on, and Reid’s post-bye week dominance is hard to ignore. Add in two strong defenses, and we’re looking at a grind-it-out battle. Chiefs 23, 49ers 20, with Kansas City covering and the game going under 47 points.

About Chuck Deadbolt

I Don’t Half Ass Anything & neither should you. With years of experience and sharp instincts, I call games like I see them—fast, accurate, and fearless. Born to compete and raised on hard-hitting action, my picks are more than just stats; they’re gut-level locks. If I put my name on it, you can bank on it.

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