Written By: Patrick Tushman

This Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens and Broncos collide in a matchup that’s shaping up to be as intense as it is unpredictable. Baltimore brings a ground game with muscle to spare, while Denver’s defense ranks among the league’s most determined, ready to stand tall against a bruising Ravens offense. And with Bo Nix gaining momentum and LamarJackson in his MV3 era, we’re looking at two teams with everything to prove. Stick around as we break down the matchups that’ll define Week 9’s must-watch showdown.

Team Overviews:

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens head into Week 9 with one of the NFL’s most punishing ground games, powered by the electric Lamar Jackson and the forceful Derrick Henry. Jackson is on an MVP-worthy tear this season, boasting over 2,000 passing yards and a league-leading completion rate that keeps defenses on their heels. Baltimore’s ground game, averaging 160+ yards per game, has been relentless, wearing down opponents and controlling the clock. This strategy has been instrumental in keeping the Ravens atop the AFC North, even after a few close calls.

But while the Ravens’ offensive line has paved the way for a strong season, their defense has shown a few cracks—particularly against the pass. Baltimore’s secondary has struggled, allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game, and if Denver can take advantage of this, it may challenge the Ravens in a way few have this year. Head coach John Harbaugh will be relying on his offense to keep up the pressure and force Denver into mistakes. For bettors, Baltimore’s consistency at home and first-half dominance make them a reliable choice, especially if their ground game takes charge early.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos arrive at M&T Bank Stadium with their own momentum, winning five of their last six games and proving to be a resilient AFC threat. Leading the charge is rookie Bo Nix, whose quick adaptation to the pros has breathed new life into Denver’s offense. Nix has shown a steady hand and flashes of brilliance, giving the Broncos a reliable passing attack that could exploit Baltimore’s secondary vulnerabilities. Denver’s offense, while not as explosive as Baltimore’s, has found success with strategic, well-timed drives that keep games competitive.

On defense, Denver has been formidable, especially in their pass coverage and third-down stops. Anchored by playmakers like Patrick Surtain II, this unit has been one of the league’s toughest, ranking top five in points allowed per game. They’ll need that toughness to withstand Baltimore’s relentless ground game. For bettors, Denver’s strength lies in keeping scores low and grinding out close matchups. Their record against the spread as underdogs speaks to their ability to surprise opponents and cover tight spreads, making them an intriguing option if the Ravens start slow.

Sunday Storylines

As Week 9 unfolds, the Ravens and Broncos meet with layered stakes, bringing intriguing dynamics to the field. Baltimore’s pursuit of AFC North supremacy meets Denver’s resilient defense, setting the stage for a matchup rich with history, ambition, and individual battles that will influence the game’s outcome. Here’s what savvy fans and bettors will want to pay close attention to:

Lamar Jackson's MV3 Campaign

• Quarterback Lamar Jackson has been driving the Ravens' success with remarkable consistency and a high level of play this season, positioning himself as a serious MVP contender. With over 2,000 passing yards, a completion rate above 67%, and more than 500 rushing yards, Jackson’s dual-threat nature places a unique pressure on defenses. Facing a Broncos team that has historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks, this game offers Jackson an opportunity to further solidify his MVP case. Watch for how Jackson’s command of the offense unfolds as he navigates Denver’s pass rush.

The Power of Baltimore’s Ground Game

• Baltimore’s relentless ground game has become a defining force, thanks to the combination of Derrick Henry’s punishing runs and Jackson’s agility. Together, they average over 6 yards per carry, making them one of the league’s most potent rushing duos. Denver’s defense has shown vulnerabilities in stopping the run, and Baltimore will likely aim to control the game tempo through its “Ground ASSault,” dominating time of possession. For those following the betting trends, this focus on ground control could play a critical role in the Ravens’ path to victory.

Denver’s Defense Aims to Stand Tall

• The Broncos' season has been challenging, yet their defense, led by playmakers like Pat Surtain II and Brandon Jones, has displayed flashes of resilience. With 7 interceptions and 30 sacks, Denver has managed to pressure quarterbacks and create turnovers, even amid other struggles. In this game, Denver’s defensive performance will be pivotal. A strong showing could not only disrupt Baltimore’s rhythm but also provide a glimmer of redemption for the Broncos. Bettors will want to consider the impact of Denver’s defense, as any early disruption to Jackson and the Ravens’ offense could alter the game’s flow.

Don’t Half Ass Gameday: Go All-In With The Assplate

Ravens vs. Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium promises a showdown of pure strength—and just like Baltimore’s ground game, the Assplate is built to bring power to your game day. While Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry handle the heavy lifting on the field, you need an  Assplate that’s ready for every wing, slider, and sauce-covered bite at your tailgate. Forget flimsy plates that fold under pressure; the  Assplate keeps it mess-free and rock solid, letting you focus on the action, not the cleanup. Don’t Half Ass your Gameday—go all-in with the  Assplate.

Betting Picks & Sharp Money Analysis

Ravens’ Spread Dominance at Home: Baltimore, led by Lamar Jackson and powerhouse back Derrick Henry, has shown a potent ground game under head coach John Harbaugh. Notably, the Ravens have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games, catching the attention of sharp money.

Ground Game Advantage Against Denver’s Defense: The Ravens rank in the top five for rushing yards per game, averaging over 160 yards on the ground. Denver’s defense, allowing an average of 115 rushing yards per game, has struggled with containment and tackling efficiency. For sharp bettors, this trend highlights a potential edge in favor of Baltimore’s rushing attack, particularly with Henry positioned to exploit Denver’s defensive weaknesses.

First-Half Spread: A Consistent Play. One key angle to consider is Baltimore’s momentum in the first half. The Ravens have covered the first-half spread in seven of their last ten games due to quick, efficient offensive drives. On the flip side, Denver has struggled early, reflected in their 2-5 record against the first-half spread this season. Bettors may find value in backing the Ravens at -5 for the first half. 

Possible Prop: Derrick Henry Rushing Yards For those interested in player props, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards total stands out. Denver’s defense has proven vulnerable to big runs, and Henry is averaging over 6 yards per carry in his last three games, making this prop a prime opportunity.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Broncos 17

1. Historical Score Patterns: Lamar Jackson’s previous matchups against the Broncos have been relatively low-scoring affairs. The Ravens averaged about 20 points in these games, while the Broncos averaged around 10. This suggests a tighter game where Baltimore’s defense holds strong while their offense scores modestly.
2. Baltimore’s Rushing and Ball Control:
• Baltimore’s rushing attack, averaging 162.7 yards per game, should allow them to control the tempo. While Denver’s defense ranks well against the pass, their run defense (16th in the league) could allow Baltimore to maintain possession and slowly build a lead.
• Red-Zone Efficiency: Baltimore’s red-zone efficiency has been inconsistent, but they’re likely to create multiple scoring drives against a Broncos defense that has struggled to close out games against strong rushing teams.
3. Denver’s Offense with Bo Nix:
• The rookie quarterback has shown promise but will face one of the top-ranked run defenses in the league, with Baltimore allowing just 69.9 rushing yards per game. Denver will likely rely on Nix’s arm, but Baltimore’s pressure rate (28.4%) could limit his effectiveness and keep the Broncos under 20 points.
• Denver’s scoring average of 20 points on the road aligns well with this prediction, particularly against a disciplined Ravens defense at home.
4. Betting and Sharp Money Trends:
• Sharp money and betting trends have leaned towards Baltimore covering at -5, indicating confidence in a Ravens win by a one-score margin. The under has also been popular in Ravens home games, supporting a more controlled score.

Tushman’s Threesome - Bonus Parlay

1. Ravens -5 Spread

• Ravens’ ATS Success at Home: Baltimore has covered the spread in 75% of their last eight home games, making them a reliable choice in front of the home crowd.
• Rushing Game Control: The Ravens’ league-leading rushing attack (162.7 yards per game) will face a middle-ranked Denver run defense (allowing 115.3 yards per game), likely giving Baltimore a control advantage. Sharp money favoring Baltimore at -5 further supports this leg.

2. Total Points: Under 46.5

• Under Trends in Ravens Home Games: Baltimore’s last four home games have gone under the total, as the Ravens’ ground game strategy keeps the clock moving and limits possessions.
• Denver’s Road Scoring: Denver has struggled to score on the road, averaging 20 points per game, which aligns with Baltimore’s defensive strength in limiting opponents. Baltimore’s defense, especially its league-best run defense (allowing just 69.9 yards per game), should restrict Denver’s scoring opportunities.

3. Ravens First-Half Moneyline

• Strong First-Half Performers: Baltimore ranks among the top five teams in first-half scoring, averaging 13.2 points in the first half compared to Denver’s 9.4 points. This advantage is key, especially at home, where the Ravens often set the tone early.
• Denver’s Slow Starts: Denver’s offense, led by rookie Bo Nix, has shown inconsistency in the first half, making it likely Baltimore can pull ahead early and control the pace.

Tushman’s Threesome Parlay (Recap)

• Ravens -5 Spread
• Total Points: Under 46.5
• Ravens First-Half Moneyline

About Patrick Tushman

With a 5-1 record on Ravens picks this season, Pat Tushman has earned his place as DHAA Sports’ go-to voice for all things Baltimore football. Known for his high-energy breakdowns, Pat brings his sharp eye to our weekly matchups and the stats that matter most to his readers. Whether he’s calling out key players or delivering bold predictions, Pat keeps it real with a Ravens-first perspective that doesn’t half-ass a single detail. Follow his picks to stay a step ahead every game day and see why Baltimore fans can’t get enough of Tushman’s takes.

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